ds posted:

Always at your service! 

Surströmming is not available in Germany to my knowledge, I had it once in Norway, the trick is open the can in a bucket of water -under the surface- to avoid the putrid smelling gases! It tasted ...strange and fishy, but not that awful. 

Good tip about the Surströmming...but I might just leave it in the bucket...or crab pot.

Oddly here, the local hoarders are not buying pickled or preserve vegetables: those large jars of Polish ill pickles, onions, sauerkraut  (Aldi special) & girardiniera for example.

^^^I think they think, if they think at all about this and do not only grab what all other also grab... TP anyone    

about the small caloric content of the pickled veggies and the high water content in the jars or cans

fat about 9 kcal / g 

alcohol 7

protein 4

carbohydrates 4

vegetable fiber 0 up to 2 (lots of it in the veggies)

And pickled veggies  serves - minus the Sauerkraut - at least here in Germany -  mainly as a small side dish to bread with cold cuts and sliced sausages the famous "Wurstbrot", and as the "Volksmund" (voice of the ordinary people) has it:  In der Not schmeckt die Wurst auch ohne Brot " (in case of emergency  the sausage tastes good even without bread).

But one should stock them too, because if one snacks out of boredom it is better to do so on low caloric stuff, and sour is not tempting for our reptile or animal brain, than sweets.  So the deeper ruler in us will not try to persuade the Body to grab and eat it all now.  As in ..."Hey you cerebrum brain part ´YOUNG BABY´, we have an EMERGENCY have you not heard it in this TV thing for yourself???  Now rip open this freezer thing and eat all the ice cream in there!!! "  Because we do not stroll though the savanna anymore (the most of us at least not!) we don't need this behavior, but it is hard to combat the temptation.

Also the fibers are good for digestion.

Last edited by Community Member

Luckily the last two Groups from my university in Hamburg are safely back from fieldwork! After some adventurous journeys [& lessons to be learned]  

h ttps://www.uni-hamburg.de/newsroom/im-fokus/2020/0406-forschungsgruppen-zurueck.html

Excursions canceled due to corona pandemic

Returned researchers report on their experiences

Two research groups from the University of Hamburg have returned to Hamburg after days of waiting. The groups went on excursions to Nepal and Cameroon and were stuck in the countries for days due to the corona pandemic.

Logs of trips - and their longed-for return.

"We have received a lot of support"

Prof. Dr. Raija Kramer, junior professor of African studies at the Asia-Africa Institute

Together with my team, I research social networks and their influence on language use and communication practices in Cameroon. Around 270 languages are spoken in the West African country and it is very interesting how people deal with it, how linguistic innovations spread. When we went on the research trip to Cameroon on March 2nd, Corona was already an issue in Asia, but not really in Europe. We then took a look at the developments on site on the Internet: over time we have been following what is happening in Europe more and more closely. With the official instruction from March 13th that all business trips [from the university of Hamburg] were stopped, it was clear to me that we would pack up things and fly back to Germany. At that time we were in Ngaoundéré, a town about 800 kilometers from the capital Yaoundé.

Social protests complicate the situation

Because a member of my group had typhoid [yeah, avoid lice and fleas as the plague, because "plague"] , we were only able to make our way to the capital on March 16 - and then the events overturned. There were social protests in Ngaoundéré, which is why we barricaded ourselves all day in the kitchen of a building that was right at the heart of the riots. [And I bet they did not have the "comfort of an AK 47 resting against the wall near you", or had at least a pot of boiling oil ready to ignite and pour over any attackers, as some poor man napalm. Had they an exit strategy, synchronized each their plans with their buddies, angles of attack/ act as a group, do not come into each others ways...I think not! ] When we took the train to the capital Yaoundé the next night, an acquaintance contacted us by phone and informed us that the borders were closed and the commercial flights had been discontinued. That was instantly and there was no longer any time window that we could have used to leave country.

In Yaoundé we went to a hotel that was recommended by the embassy as the only safe place. Overall, however, we received a great deal of support from Cameroonians: a friend brought us food to the hotel on the first day, and worried colleagues from the country called us and took care of us. [It is always important to be "connected" the proverbial "vitamin C" and also have a good standing with the people and colleagues  - do not be an asshole! And listen to the "bush telegraph" he is often early on and true! ]

Daily contact with the university

We were in daily contact with the team of the university president and the Hamburg Senate, who supported our return journey at many levels. The German Research Foundation has also helped. We mainly communicated by email or made phone calls. In the beginning it didn't look good for the return efforts. We were more in tune with a long waiting period in Cameroon, which would have been very tough under the conditions. The good news that flights are now going came last Thursday, after eight days of waiting, and shortly afterwards we learned that we would be considered for a return flight. [In time of uncertainty constantly improve your position, prepare and "fortify". ]

First of all I am very happy to be back home with my family. But I am aware that further field research missions are out of the question in the near future. So first of all I will stay in Germany. For the ten days that we were able to work in the field in Cameroon in March, we were really very productive, collected a lot and transcribed a lot. I will now work with the material.

Photo: UHH / Kramer

Prof. Dr. Raija Kramer (center) and her students were only able to leave Cameroon's capital Yaoundé after eight days of waiting.  [they got proper PPE at least from someone / somewhere. And a nice leather (?) bodybag (yes, I know, but we call them so in Germany) at the guy on the left]

---

"Even in remote mountain villages there were hygiene notices"

Dr. Maria Bobrowski, Research Associate in the Biogeography and Landscape Ecology group at the Institute of Geography

The Himalayas are the highest mountain range in the world and include a variety of fascinating habitats. My research focus - both during my doctorate and while working as a member of the biogeography and landscape ecology group of Prof. Dr. Udo Schickhoff - was and is the modeling of the alpine tree line. On March 1st we started an excursion with 25 students to run the Manaslu Track. Here we wanted to get to know the relationship between people and the environment in the high mountain landscapes of Nepal. Lectures were planned on the route based on the topics of the preparatory seminar.

Information only if the solar panel works

When we arrived in Kathmandu, our body temperature was recorded with a thermal imager before the visa was even stamped in the passport.  [While in Germany even passengers from very high risk countries as Iran could freely walk in only have to fill in a card which no official checked with the traveller] Apart from that, there were no special indications at the beginning. However, this changed during the excursion: Even in remote mountain villages there were paper notices with hygiene instructions against Corona posted. And when you spoke on the phone, you got an automatic announcement before the ringing tone. According to the translation by our Nepalese guide, it was an indication to wear masks to protect against the virus and to wash your hands.

However, the information reached us less and less frequently during the hike. The higher up we got, the poorer the reception. So we only received updates every few days when the solar panel on the hut could power the router. [Pays to have a satellite phone with data, India has banned them AFIK, Nepal I do not know] Around March 13th, the Presidium and the department informed us by email that we should contact the university immediately and return as soon as possible. But we were actually on our way back, because there was an extraordinary amount of snow left, so that we could not cross the Larkya La Pass. [A side effect from global warming?]

Unclear situation with the airlines

After exacerbating the situation, five students flew directly to the capital in a helicopter at their own expense, but the main group took several days to Kathmandu on foot and by bus. [No Monday morning quarterbacking, maybe they had a medical condition, but normally you stay with your "caravan" and do not leave your buddies! In this phases of your study you build your "street credit" and make it or break it, if you will be "tapped" later for good projects... ] There the excursion was officially ended on March 19 and a large part of the excursion members were also able to leave directly - but with the last possible flight. For the rest of us, the situation was very confusing, because it was said in the airlines' offices that several flights would still go. In the end, most of the participants had booked and paid for three flights in parallel. [As I always preach, have a $/€ available for every mile you are away from home, some day you will dire need that funds!] Fortunately, during the week of waiting, we were able to stay in the hotel where we started the excursion. On the 27th we were able to leave with the return program of the Federal Foreign Office.

We have to wait and see when the next excursion to Nepal can start. But if the corona situation permits, we will definitely offer the excursion again. It is an incredibly diverse and particularly fascinating landscape for geographers. And it is a unique experience to see the roof of the world and be surrounded by 8,000-meter peaks.

 

 

The excursion group from geography dept. hiked in Nepal on the Manaslu Track. Photo: UHH / Bobrowsk

[Note the artificial terraces on the right looked not in use for food production given the trees growing on them for some time, at least a few students seem to check them out.]

###

It is in any case magnitudes better to be with a group from a large university in this situation, than being a regular tourist, because of "cloud" as lots of Alumni in Germany and former students all over the world in higher positions and also associated and cooperating scientists in the host counties to be helpful.     

I just went outside to ‘applaud the NHS’ which has become a weekly ritual here. I live in a small street of eleven houses but only know a few neighbours, including the older couple (in their seventies) who live opposite me. He wasn’t there applauding, just his wife. I shouted across asking how they were. He died on Tuesday, in hospital, with no family present as he had tested positive for Covid. Hit me like a ton of bricks, couldn't even hug her, frail lady that she is. Apparently he fell out of bed and hit his head and had seizures, prompting his trip to hospital on Saturday, which i somehow missed, just gors to show how insular we have become. She is in bits, she has even put his mobile phone out in the garden after her son bought his possessions back from the hospital as she is scared and alone.

Fuck, makes it real and makes you realise what loved ones are going through. She wont even get a decent funeral, just her and four other family members allowed to attend. I feel like a bad neighbour and pretty useless right now. Abolutely gobsmacked.

Sorry, had to rant, lost a neighbour, someone I used to shout at to mow my lawn and wash my car as he did his so often and shamed the rest of us and he would laugh. Gone.

standeasy posted:

I just went outside to ‘applaud the NHS’ which has become a weekly ritual here. I live in a small street of eleven houses but only know a few neighbours, including the older couple (in their seventies) who live opposite me. He wasn’t there applauding, just his wife. I shouted across asking how they were. He died on Tuesday, in hospital, with no family present as he had tested positive for Covid. Hit me like a ton of bricks, couldn't even hug her, frail lady that she is. Apparently he fell out of bed and hit his head and had seizures, prompting his trip to hospital on Saturday, which i somehow missed, just gors to show how insular we have become. She is in bits, she has even put his mobile phone out in the garden after her son bought his possessions back from the hospital as she is scared and alone.

Fuck, makes it real and makes you realise what loved ones are going through. She wont even get a decent funeral, just her and four other family members allowed to attend. I feel like a bad neighbour and pretty useless right now. Abolutely gobsmacked.

Sorry, had to rant, lost a neighbour, someone I used to shout at to mow my lawn and wash my car as he did his so often and shamed the rest of us and he would laugh. Gone.

Damn. Just damn it.

I'm sorry brother.

standeasy posted:

I just went outside to ‘applaud the NHS’ which has become a weekly ritual here. I live in a small street of eleven houses but only know a few neighbours, including the older couple (in their seventies) who live opposite me. He wasn’t there applauding, just his wife. I shouted across asking how they were. He died on Tuesday, in hospital, with no family present as he had tested positive for Covid. Hit me like a ton of bricks, couldn't even hug her, frail lady that she is. Apparently he fell out of bed and hit his head and had seizures, prompting his trip to hospital on Saturday, which i somehow missed, just gors to show how insular we have become. She is in bits, she has even put his mobile phone out in the garden after her son bought his possessions back from the hospital as she is scared and alone.

Fuck, makes it real and makes you realise what loved ones are going through. She wont even get a decent funeral, just her and four other family members allowed to attend. I feel like a bad neighbour and pretty useless right now. Abolutely gobsmacked.

Sorry, had to rant, lost a neighbour, someone I used to shout at to mow my lawn and wash my car as he did his so often and shamed the rest of us and he would laugh. Gone.

Sorry brother.

things like losing a neighbor and being unaware sneak up on us all once in a while.

It can be a bit jarring to your soul.

Hang in there - and when this is all over- go hug her (your neighbor) - she will need it.



David

standeasy posted:
Fuck, makes it real and makes you realise what loved ones are going through. She wont even get a decent funeral, just her and four other family members allowed to attend. I feel like a bad neighbour and pretty useless right now. Abolutely gobsmacked.

Sorry, had to rant, lost a neighbour, someone I used to shout at to mow my lawn and wash my car as he did his so often and shamed the rest of us and he would laugh. Gone.

I'm sorry to hear that... best you can do is be there to help once it's all said and done, but that's a shitty way to leave the world. I'm sure she'll appreciate your help as this passes.

@ standeasy

Sorry to hear this, fuck this virus!

If she is old (risk group) and alone, is there any neighbors help as in shopping (we have it in Germany to a high degree) I don't know your circumstances if it is possible for you, but maybe you can offer to assist her with shopping in this bad times?

..lost my grandfather's last sibling (great aunt) almost 4 weeks ago in Long Beach..family still can't bury her..feel sorry most for her husband, really close knit family..her husband was my grandfather's best friend, they were my parents godparents.

My parents are stuck here and can't go home.  They're affected by Philippines lockdown..they can't even go back to their own home.

GF stuck in lockdown in UAE. We're due to get engaged and marry next year.

You can't let life get you down on things you can't control. I don't think about things  in my personal life while on duty....other people's lives depend on me. Just like being on deployment in OEF or OIF, compartmentalize and drive on. 

how not to "prepare" ... 

h ttps://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1248699127904587777/pu/img/H3V5c44Dtm-sOXyformat=jpg&name=small

There is hardly a country where the number of new infections with the corona virus is increasing as rapidly as in Turkey. The Turkish government has now imposed exit restrictions on the country's largest cities - announcing it two hours in advance. Then chaos broke out in the metropolis of Istanbul. Otherwise, President Erdogan is not always acting good in the crisis.

The Turkish government temporarily imposed exit restrictions on 31 cities this weekend due to the Corona crisis. This also affects the country's largest city, the metropolis of Istanbul, as provincial governor Ali Yerlikaya confirmed in a tweet on Friday evening.

Because the measure was announced just under two hours in advance, panic buying started immediately in Istanbul. Queues formed in supermarkets, in front of bakeries and convenience stores. She expected such a measure, said Istanbul-based Simona Hayrabe to the AFP news agency. "But it came so suddenly."    [it is prepare Dummy!]

    

Details and exceptions to the exit ban in Turkey only gradually leaked out. According to a tweet from the Ministry of Interior, the capital city of Ankara and the major cities of Izmir and Antalya are also affected. The ban shall apply from midnight on Saturday to midnight on Monday.

The opposition mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, criticized the shortly communicated measure. He did not know anything about the curfew, Imamoglu said in a video message. "We were not informed," said the mayor. "We don't even know what services we can offer tomorrow in Istanbul."

The epicenter of the Turkish corona crisis is the metropolis of Istanbul, where beds in intensive care units are becoming scarce. "There are 4600 intensive care beds in Istanbul and 80 percent of them were occupied in just two to three days," said the head of the Turkish Medical Association TTB, Sinan Adiyaman, the German Press Agency. "We were told that. And that will increase. "

"We see that we were very unprepared"
Regarding the construction of two more hospitals announced by President Erdogan within 45 days, Adiyaman said it would have been good if they had been planned in early February. "Then they would be ready now." He criticized that Turkey had reacted late and insufficiently to the Corona crisis. "We are now in the fourth week and see that we were very unprepared here."

The TTB medical association had also questioned the number of officially recorded deaths this week. In a statement, it was "striking" that the number of Covid 19 cases increased, but the graph of deaths did not proceed accordingly.
So far, "the death of patients who tested negative, but whose computed tomography was positive - that is, compatible with Covid-19 disease - was recorded as natural death, death due to an infectious disease or viral pneumonia," said Adiyaman. However, the WHO had ordered the code for "probably Covid-19" to be given in such cases. Turkey is not yet doing this. "Of course the numbers are higher than stated," said Adiyaman.

h ttps://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/kurzfristige-ausgangsbeschraenkungen-wir-wurden-nicht-informiert-erdogans-corona-dekret-sorgt-in-istanbul-fuer-chaos_id_11873083.html

 

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Evil politicians at their "best" 

The "mask shortage emergency" has blossomed to such an extent that SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach came up with the adventurous suggestion that the population should make face masks out of vacuum cleaner bags (PI-NEWS reported).

It is all the more incomprehensible that a week ago the federal government missed the unique opportunity to buy 50 million (!) Protective masks from a company in Hong Kong at a reasonable price. The background: Paul Hampel, the foreign policy spokesman for the AfD parliamentary group, brokered the offer.

Foreign politicians with excellent contacts

For a better understanding, some details about Paul Hampel, who has been a member of the AfD in the Bundestag for AfD since 2017: From 1999, the journalist was parliamentary correspondent in the founding team of the ARD capital studio in Berlin and from 2003 to 2008 head of the ARD's South Asia studio in Neu- Delhi. He is well connected internationally and is said to give a good foreign minister [if we ever make it into Federal Government].

Through an old business relationship in Hong Kong, Hampel received an offer for 50 million masks. Some of these were normal medical face masks, some were surgical respirators with EU certification. The unit price: 33 to 38 cents per piece [for the normal masks]. The delivery could have taken place within two weeks.

Offer "checked to death"

On Wednesday, April 1st, Hampel informed Chancellor Minister Helge Braun of the offer. After the business partner in Hong Kong had understandably only given two days to think about it and Hampel did not receive a definitive answer to his email request, the AfD member of the Bundestag asked twice more by telephone. The succinct information: The offer will be checked.

Incidentally, this "check" has not yet been completed, as Hampel confirmed yesterday at PI-NEWS's request. However, the  dealer in Hong Kong has since sold the face masks elsewhere. After all, there is no shortage of worldwide demand.

So now the people of another country are happy about the 50 million protective masks. They deserves that because, unlike the Germans, it was not so stupid to choose a government that had been acting for years to the detriment of its own people.

###

Guide to the recession   

So if everybody in business buys one and do what is explained, than any business will profit from the depression?  Or only the authors? ... 

But all kidding aside, in the complexes industries (hint: automobile) there must be a European (and maybe Asian) coordination to startup production again, that has better to be planned and coordinated NOW! The automobile bosses told this Merkel "Bloodhand" already a few days ago in a phone conference.

More than 20% of components of "German made" cars come from (northern)Italy and Spain, the most hard hit Countries by COVID-19 in the EU.

And that are not only "decadent parts" as leather covered seats and steering wheels, but also crucial mechanical parts and mechatronic components for high end cars. If this are really  specially parts, made only by one or two manufacturers and both went bankrupt and cease production for a longer time the carmakers will be royalty fucked. 

So I hope the industry will not depend on the usual politicians but plan out for themself, or we will get likely the next big disaster. 

###

Von der Leyen does not recommend booking summer vacations

Low travel time: Due to the Corona crisis, only a fifth as many passengers use the train over Easter as in 2019. And the head of the EU Commission considers it wise not to make any holiday plans for the summer either. That may kill a lot of travel related businesses because the business model for most is give the taken money forward, if the forward partner goes down the refund is still on the company that has made the contract with the customers, and according the law the customer has the right to get his refund in cash not a voucher "for the next journey".  So this will likely topple like dominoes through the whole chain from travel agents to hotels, cruise lines and airlines. This is normally insured against but the whole sum is only 440 million € for a nearly 90 billion business in Germany (10% BIP)!  I think, my travel to Rome will probably not happen, I would take a voucher- if it is plus a few percent or other goodies AND fully state insured/warrantied.  I will also get in a few weeks (if VW will not go bankrupt till than, or is the money already secured by the court/the lawyers?) a refund of 1811€  for the cheater diesel engine of my car, I wanted to buy a nice system camera with a good zoom lens, but now not. It would take care of nearly two month of my fix costs, and who really knowns how bad this all will become, so this money will at lest "buy some Nutella to smear on top of the shit-sandwich ", it will be still a shit sandwich, but taste at least a little sweeter. 

###

The Deutsche Bahn has seen a slump in passenger numbers for weeks. According to the "BamS", it registered just under 300,000 long-distance bookings for Easter. In the previous year there were still 1.5 million. This means that bookings are around a fifth compared to Easter 2019 - at least somewhat higher than in the past few weeks, when in the trains only were 10 to 15 percent of the usual level of passengers on its long-distance trains. According to this, 2,000 trains a day operate in freight transport, plus special trains primarily with food and medical goods.

The ADAC road-assistance helpers are currently far less busy. They were used only 8753 times on Maundy Thursday, 3951 times on Good Friday. This is a decrease of 41 percent in each case compared to the previous year.

And by the way, with all traffic and production down, the particulate matter and NOx measurements are not going down at the measuring stations in Germany, and on some it is even higher!  So FFF explains this!

###

I hope I will spoil not your good Easter mood to much, but as usual in the SPIEGEL ... it is all Trumps fault!

Patient America: How Trump drives the United States into a corona collapse

With the president's disastrous crisis management, America is facing an unprecedented economic crash. Is the world experiencing the implosion of a superpower?

Article is behind a paywall and I am not tempted to

A) read the cooked off leftwing BS!

B) pay them any of my hard-earned money!

###

To late to add, flights gone down to 10 % of usual over Europe in the last week, on Hamburg airport are only 5% of normal traffic (and that may be mostly air freight) 

I said it before and I'll repeat it.  This is a no-win situation, a Kobayashi Maru for every politician in the world, anywhere in the political spectrum.  They will be praised by their supporters and condemned by their opponents.  I've read articles about how badly the US is doing to control the virus and how we are now at the top of the list for deaths and infections.  Naturally, they focus on the numbers alone rather than an analysis that is proportional to the population.  On the other side, the focus is on the damage to the economy.  Both are invalid because of the focus on a particular aspect. 

I think the focus on a single nation is also misleading.  We've closed two of the three terminals at McCarran airport here in Las Vegas because of the drop in traffic.  And naturally, there are laments about the lost jobs.  I have yet to see anyone who focuses on the local ever address the fact that the economies are in shambles world wide.  Which begs for someone with the skills and knowledge to look at the recovery.  The extent of the damage vs. recovery has to include our situation (for your personal state/country) compared to the rest of the world.  How many times have we watched a movie or TV fight where the two combatants are both beaten down to the point they're staggering or crawling and the winner is that fighter who has just a little more left in him than the other guy.  How extensive and how strong the recovery will be for any country will depend on the measures focused on that recovery and the competition.

^^^^This, and how (and who of cause) to pay for this "resurrection"

The big redistribution

04/05/2020 | Manfred Gburek [original in German]
It is high time to consider a side effect of the Covid 19 pandemic that will affect all of us: the virus is causing a massive redistribution in the capital markets. It will be sustainable and affect all investors, whether private savers, funds, insurers, pension funds or other institutional investors.

Let's start with an apparently incidental, but in reality serious, example: On March 27, the ECB asked the banks to refrain from dividends and share buybacks. The request that became a recommendation concerns dividends for 2019 and 2020; it will apply at least until October 2020. However, some banks have already paid dividends for 2019. You are not retrospectively affected by the recommendation.

The other banks are said to use the amounts saved by not paying dividends and buying back shares to "support households and small and large companies and / or absorb losses from existing claims on these borrowers".

What a huddle! And it gets even worse. The Börsen-Zeitung hits the nail on the head when it warns: "The ECB takes banks and their shareholders by surprise with a highly questionable Ukas, which interferes massively with property rights without a legal basis. In the end, nobody knows what is meant" - especially since it is There is another connection, including extreme consequences: banks must back up their lending business with equity.

But that's currently very expensive. So what do companies rely on for loans, especially medium-sized companies? They seek refuge in corporate bonds. The volume of their emissions reaches new records almost every day. Because of their coupons of between 5 and 10 percent in some cases, such bonds have a magical attraction for the institutional investors mentioned. Whether they will ever be repaid is uncertain - which is why their debtors are aptly referred to as zombies. But hardly anyone cares about that right now, the principle of hope applies.

What we are experiencing is a new, little-researched chapter in economic history. On the face of it, amateur actions such as the ECB Ukas or the accumulation of inferior corporate bonds contribute to this. But there is much more stirring in the background, little or no coordination. Minister of Labor Hubertus Heil appeals to employers: "Don't throw people out!" But his appeal has to evaporate if only because an irrevocable minister with a risk-free fixed salary in terms of credibility is not a medium-sized company that is concerned between jobs and worries.

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz even appeals to banks and savings banks to let the proverbial "be straight" during the credit check. And what the hell the SPD leader Saskia Esken rode to throw a wealth levy into the debate just now can only be attributed to the anger at her party's unflattering poll results.

If you take Scholz's word for it, the question arises: Isn't Germany just a small step on the way to the banana republic? Of course, his loosely saying is not enough to answer this question with yes. However, there is evidence to raise questions such as the following:

Which companies should be saved, which should be left to their fate? What criteria should apply? When and under what circumstances do employers 'and workers' interests take precedence? Which institutions have the final say on certain decisions, for example: Federal government, state governments, municipalities, associations, Federal Constitutional Court, European Union, ECB, European Court of Justice? How will the so-called corona bonds be constructed? Which measures are compatible with the Basic Law and which are not?

It is already foreseeable today that there will be intense redistribution struggles: between employers and workers, rich and poor, healthy and sick, federal government and opposition, federal and state governments, shareholders and managers, lenders and borrowers, individual EU countries and the EU, national decision-makers and international organizations - and so on, end open. After all, this is about serious decisions, not least about the fate of corporations like Lufthansa, Deutsche Bank, Adidas, Puma, TUI or Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof including their employees.

Nobody can do justice to the complexity of the problem, let alone its solution. The massive, extremely far-reaching aid measures decided by Germany and other countries, as necessary as they are, clearly demonstrate one thing: the bazooka, synonymous with full firepower to stimulate the economy, may shoot so much at it, its effect will be on Remain restrained. As long as companies postpone investments and consumers wait for purchases out of fear for their jobs, the economic recovery will be a long time coming.

And the consequence? One, known in this regard for plain text, is Heinz-Werner Rapp, head of the Feri Cognitive Finance Institute think tank. He sums up: "The impact of the corona crash is forcing governments and central banks worldwide to react massively. Initial analyzes show a worrying picture. The corona crisis is definitely entering a new monetary regime: open government financing with central bank money."

Therefore, comparisons with the financial and economic crisis of 2008 are largely superfluous. At that time, states and central banks intervened in the economy, but neither virus paralyzed everything nor was there such massive government funding as now. Furthermore, the central banks had enough scope to cut interest rates. That is not the case now because interest rates have long been floating around the zero line.

The bottom line is that the global economy is still in deflation, but inflationary forces will begin to take effect this year. The prelude to this is the lush central bank money. Gold and silver, and later other metals, offer some protection from the worst consequences. The earlier you include both precious metals in private financial planning, the better.


© Manfred Gburek
w ww.gburek.eu

 

All true.

If all of the economies of the world are being equally (more or less) destroyed by the virus, how can you say that the US economy is going to fail worse than the other countries?

IMO, the Chicoms have to be hurting worse than many other places right now. Unfortunately, we may not know the true extent for quite a while.

1. Extremely tired of the media right about now. 

Dear media, 

a) No,  this is not "Trump's fault". Re: handling of the epidemic - as was very well underlined above a no-win scenario for any democratically elected politician.  You are either a heartless butcher of your own people, especially senior citizens or the guy who killed the economy.  If you go for the latter there is no way to prove you were right. 

BTW, I still remember ( was yesterday ) when President Trump was called mean words by you when he stopped air traffic between US and China. 

b) Please stop politicizing the epidemic.

c) If you really want to do a deep dive into who who is to blame for this I really suggest to start looking in a city called Bejing. How the bloody hell does any Italian, Spanish, German, American politican get the blame from the media for any of the Wuhan virus related shit while the commie mandarins don't get one word of criticism? 

d) If the commie mandarins are off limits how about a word or two about the WHO? 

If the majority of the mainstream media really want to prove they are obsolete and can be replaced by some random dudes/dudettes who have access to cameras and youtube they're on the right path. 

2.  Turkey can go and jump off the cliff for all that I care. 

While people in Italy were dying and half of the continent was getting this bug Erdogan organized a massive bus shipping campaign of "refugees" from Turkish "refugee" camps right to the Greek border.  That must have really helped to lower the spread within Turkey and I'm sure had Europe's best interests ( healthcare and otherwise ) at heart . 

There is a very telling video going around of a what seems to be like a Turkish mil. or leo ordering people to get off the bus and go to Greece despite them not wanting to, while holding a gun. 

So yes, very sad that they're getting hit by the epidemic ( I don't trust their official numbers too much btw and Istanbul/Constantinopole is  densely populated in some districts ) but hey, so is everyone else and they've had ample time to prepare. President Erdogan has had people monitoring the temperature of anyone who comes near him for about a month now from what I hear, so the government has an inkling as to what's going on and I guess wasn't particularly bothered. 

Maybe the Turks will remember it come next election time and vote him out of office.  That's of course assuming Erdogan will honor the results without bloodshed. 

Last edited by Community Member

I'm not posting this as fact, but it's interesting and worth further investigation.  Allegedly, the actual number of Covid-19 deaths in China are about 21 million.  Allegedly, this was revealed by Chinese cell phone records.  Allegedly, the Chinese have tied virtually everything to cell phones.  Employment, identity, health records, etc.  Everyone has to have a smart phone.  So the only reason for canceling a phone number is because the holder has died.  So someone smart, or wearing a tinfoil hat, determined through Chinese records that over 21 million cell phone accounts were canceled in January and February 2020.  Who knows, maybe they're right.

https://www.kmov dot com/why-did-21-million-phone-numbers-disappear-from-china-after-coronavirus-outbreak/article_80456379-e8af-52a8-9366-f8af64b45fd1.html

Dorsai posted:  Allegedly, the actual number of Covid-19 deaths in China are about 21 million. 
 

So  all those fresh transplant  organs hitting the market should really drive the prices down?

No.

It is absolutely true, no secret squirrel stuff, that 21 MM subscriptions were terminated during the outbreak, across China. In the public filings with the government, etc. by the mobile operators. 

Summary of what, and why it's not 1:1 death: https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8717250566

But, background from me (telecom type, published a book with pictures of cell phone towers in them) to explain context assumed in the smarter articles, or missed by the mass media or conspiratorial ones. A subscription is the service agreement you have with a mobile phone operator. In most of the world, you don't tie that to the phone, but to the SIM. You may or very much may not buy the phone from the operator, at the same time. 

Even more important, in much of the world, China included, you don't have one phone subscription. Even as an individual person, you might have 2-3. So, you have one for the city, but another for when you visit the family back on the farm for the holidays, 1000 km away. Better coverage, better rate, whatever. 

And you don't use your personal phone for work, but are issued one.

Or you have one /phone/ but one of those not-in-the-US phones with multiple SIM slots, pick which one you want to use. Those are good for smartphone world of course, as all your apps and tap-to-pay and so on is one one device. 

So... people got rid of spare subscriptions. If you fired people, you cancel their subs. If you are now not going to visit grandma (the pandemic happened JUST before new year, which is one reason the government so aggressively cut travel, as it's everyone-go-home month) you can cancel the remainder of the SIM you got last week for the trip. Etc. etc. 

A drop is subs has NO direct correlation to a drop in humans. Even if subs==humans, if that many died, who is there to cancel their subscription? You'd see more dead than the drop in subscriptions in one short time period  

(At least one group of FB friends has decided my responding with much the same as this a week or so ago in response to their posting means... I guess I am a commie, or Chinese bot or something? You decide if happier with your china conspiracy theories, no skin off my nose.)

A few weeks into the pandemic now, there was a (weighted, but not 100% representative) online survey on a popular German news page.

How long would the food and household supplies in your home last?   [that implies drinkable tap water is a given? ]

I don't have any        3.7%     [at a population somewhat about 80 millions that are 3 million hungry mouths to be fed or start troublemaking after day three of a real emergency! ]

For some days           55.6%  [44.5 million, the "normal people"? ]

For a few weeks       36.1% [29 million, the prepper NAZIs] 

For a couple of months    3.2%    [2.5 million, the real hardcore prepper NAZIs] 

For half a year or more     1.4%  [1.1 million, the real hardcore "Reichsbürger" or "Selbstverwalter" Doomsday wishing to come  NAZIs, or maybe we have so many Mormons in Germany?] 

 

So at least 32.5 Millions of Germans (≈ 40%) are prepared for a good amount of time for food (and/or TP ?).

Last edited by Community Member
shoobe01 posted:

No.

It is absolutely true, no secret squirrel stuff, that 21 MM subscriptions were terminated during the outbreak, across China. In the public filings with the government, etc. by the mobile operators. 

Summary of what, and why it's not 1:1 death: https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8717250566

But, background from me (telecom type, published a book with pictures of cell phone towers in them) to explain context assumed in the smarter articles, or missed by the mass media or conspiratorial ones. A subscription is the service agreement you have with a mobile phone operator. In most of the world, you don't tie that to the phone, but to the SIM. You may or very much may not buy the phone from the operator, at the same time. 

Even more important, in much of the world, China included, you don't have one phone subscription. Even as an individual person, you might have 2-3. So, you have one for the city, but another for when you visit the family back on the farm for the holidays, 1000 km away. Better coverage, better rate, whatever. 

And you don't use your personal phone for work, but are issued one.

Or you have one /phone/ but one of those not-in-the-US phones with multiple SIM slots, pick which one you want to use. Those are good for smartphone world of course, as all your apps and tap-to-pay and so on is one one device. 

So... people got rid of spare subscriptions. If you fired people, you cancel their subs. If you are now not going to visit grandma (the pandemic happened JUST before new year, which is one reason the government so aggressively cut travel, as it's everyone-go-home month) you can cancel the remainder of the SIM you got last week for the trip. Etc. etc. 

A drop is subs has NO direct correlation to a drop in humans. Even if subs==humans, if that many died, who is there to cancel their subscription? You'd see more dead than the drop in subscriptions in one short time period  

(At least one group of FB friends has decided my responding with much the same as this a week or so ago in response to their posting means... I guess I am a commie, or Chinese bot or something? You decide if happier with your china conspiracy theories, no skin off my nose.)

That does cover a lot.

I remember in KSA that a majority of the cell phones sold after about 2012 had dual-sim capability. And many people had multiple phones because they had an account with STC, an account with Mobily, an account with Zain, and so on, for just those reasons. So, theoretically, just from what I listed here, you could have six sim cards.

And this may not necessarily cover work phones, and tablets with wifi.

There has to be a better way to try and get an accurate count of dead in China. Even  the media have to start admitting at some point that the Chicoms cooked the books on numbers.

yakc130 posted:
shoobe01 posted:
 

There has to be a better way to try and get an accurate count of dead in China. Even  the media have to start admitting at some point that the Chicoms cooked the books on numbers.

Vehicle registrations?

Telco activity?

That social credit system?

Real estate turnover?

Bank accounts?

Second hand goods sales?

Ali Baba transactions?

yakc130 posted:
shoobe01 posted:

No.

It is absolutely true, no secret squirrel stuff, that 21 MM subscriptions were terminated during the outbreak, across China. In the public filings with the government, etc. by the mobile operators. 

Summary of what, and why it's not 1:1 death: https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8717250566

But, background from me (telecom type, published a book with pictures of cell phone towers in them) to explain context assumed in the smarter articles, or missed by the mass media or conspiratorial ones. A subscription is the service agreement you have with a mobile phone operator. In most of the world, you don't tie that to the phone, but to the SIM. You may or very much may not buy the phone from the operator, at the same time. 

Even more important, in much of the world, China included, you don't have one phone subscription. Even as an individual person, you might have 2-3. So, you have one for the city, but another for when you visit the family back on the farm for the holidays, 1000 km away. Better coverage, better rate, whatever. 

And you don't use your personal phone for work, but are issued one.

Or you have one /phone/ but one of those not-in-the-US phones with multiple SIM slots, pick which one you want to use. Those are good for smartphone world of course, as all your apps and tap-to-pay and so on is one one device. 

So... people got rid of spare subscriptions. If you fired people, you cancel their subs. If you are now not going to visit grandma (the pandemic happened JUST before new year, which is one reason the government so aggressively cut travel, as it's everyone-go-home month) you can cancel the remainder of the SIM you got last week for the trip. Etc. etc. 

A drop is subs has NO direct correlation to a drop in humans. Even if subs==humans, if that many died, who is there to cancel their subscription? You'd see more dead than the drop in subscriptions in one short time period  

(At least one group of FB friends has decided my responding with much the same as this a week or so ago in response to their posting means... I guess I am a commie, or Chinese bot or something? You decide if happier with your china conspiracy theories, no skin off my nose.)

That does cover a lot.

I remember in KSA that a majority of the cell phones sold after about 2012 had dual-sim capability. And many people had multiple phones because they had an account with STC, an account with Mobily, an account with Zain, and so on, for just those reasons. So, theoretically, just from what I listed here, you could have six sim cards.

And this may not necessarily cover work phones, and tablets with wifi.

There has to be a better way to try and get an accurate count of dead in China. Even  the media have to start admitting at some point that the Chicoms cooked the books on numbers.

..the CCP will cook anything even live probable Covid-19  patients..

standeasy posted:

I just went outside to ‘applaud the NHS’ which has become a weekly ritual here. I live in a small street of eleven houses but only know a few neighbours, including the older couple (in their seventies) who live opposite me. He wasn’t there applauding, just his wife. I shouted across asking how they were. He died on Tuesday, in hospital, with no family present as he had tested positive for Covid. Hit me like a ton of bricks, couldn't even hug her, frail lady that she is. Apparently he fell out of bed and hit his head and had seizures, prompting his trip to hospital on Saturday, which i somehow missed, just gors to show how insular we have become. She is in bits, she has even put his mobile phone out in the garden after her son bought his possessions back from the hospital as she is scared and alone.

Fuck, makes it real and makes you realise what loved ones are going through. She wont even get a decent funeral, just her and four other family members allowed to attend. I feel like a bad neighbour and pretty useless right now. Abolutely gobsmacked.

Sorry, had to rant, lost a neighbour, someone I used to shout at to mow my lawn and wash my car as he did his so often and shamed the rest of us and he would laugh. Gone.

Tragic.  My condolences, Standeasy. 

shoobe01 posted:

No.

It is absolutely true, no secret squirrel stuff, that 21 MM subscriptions were terminated during the outbreak, across China. In the public filings with the government, etc. by the mobile operators. 

Summary of what, and why it's not 1:1 death: https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8717250566

But, background from me (telecom type, published a book with pictures of cell phone towers in them) to explain context assumed in the smarter articles, or missed by the mass media or conspiratorial ones. A subscription is the service agreement you have with a mobile phone operator. In most of the world, you don't tie that to the phone, but to the SIM. You may or very much may not buy the phone from the operator, at the same time. 

Even more important, in much of the world, China included, you don't have one phone subscription. Even as an individual person, you might have 2-3. So, you have one for the city, but another for when you visit the family back on the farm for the holidays, 1000 km away. Better coverage, better rate, whatever. 

And you don't use your personal phone for work, but are issued one.

Or you have one /phone/ but one of those not-in-the-US phones with multiple SIM slots, pick which one you want to use. Those are good for smartphone world of course, as all your apps and tap-to-pay and so on is one one device. 

So... people got rid of spare subscriptions. If you fired people, you cancel their subs. If you are now not going to visit grandma (the pandemic happened JUST before new year, which is one reason the government so aggressively cut travel, as it's everyone-go-home month) you can cancel the remainder of the SIM you got last week for the trip. Etc. etc. 

A drop is subs has NO direct correlation to a drop in humans. Even if subs==humans, if that many died, who is there to cancel their subscription? You'd see more dead than the drop in subscriptions in one short time period  

(At least one group of FB friends has decided my responding with much the same as this a week or so ago in response to their posting means... I guess I am a commie, or Chinese bot or something? You decide if happier with your china conspiracy theories, no skin off my nose.)

Excellent.  That is why my first sentence said I wasn't posting a fact.  I ran across the allegation a couple of times, but no rebuttals, and nothing as detailed as yours.  We all "know" that China has been cooking the books, only the degree is in question.  Now we have a rebuttal.  There may be 21 mill deaths as indicated by the cancellations.  Or there are other reasonable explanations.  

That data is still useful for approximating the number of deaths. When China is in a reasonable state of recovery we can look at the delta between numbers of phones pre- and post- COVID19, divide by the number of phones per capita and arrive at a rough estimate.

This was written today on an alternative media site:

In some foreign media, the rather mild course - with relatively few deaths - of the virus crisis in Germany has been positively associated with the person of the Chancellor Merkel.  And the conformist mass media in Germany are anyway full of praise for Angela Merkel, who is so miraculously “resurrected” from the ashes in this crisis.

In contrast, the higher number of victims in the United States and Great Britain so far are bluntly explained with their unpopular - by the left and green " journalists" at least-  political leaders Trump and Johnson. On the other hand, it is conspicuously avoided to relate the high death rates in Italy and Spain to their current left-wing governments!

The next is from the comments...

<irony> If you are wondering why Germany has much lower death rates than the rest of Europe and the USA, you should be aware about who the old Germans really are: the last remnants of real National Socialists, then post-war children brought up in the same spirit, "nimble as Greyhounds, tough as leather, hard as Krupp steel ”, grown up in rubble, played in the dirt, small wounds disinfected with own urine, no allergies, not self-indulgent, disciplined. Can be viewed in every REHA clinic. <irony>

One upon a time, every monarch had his court astrologer... now  every politician has his personal  court virologist.

"… Even today, however, it can be assumed that the state and level of the health system and public health should not play an insignificant role in the balance of the dramatic events...." I think so too, and maybe the discipline. There are a few remaining virtues left in Germans, even if the typical German likes to make himself smaller than he is.  And that is also very German!

###

So now after the first shock is gone, the run for best ideas between Merkel "Bloodhand" - maybe a fifth period as chancellor now for her? And her challengers...

I am the boss now! Mutti Merkel, she just declared what she has to say to the people - and only that- is the truth, so Heil mein   ... ohh felony here, so at least Hail my Pope!

Friedrich Merz? His only asset is he survived COVID-19, has nothing to act in this crisis, so probably gone.

Spahn, still the sidekick of Laschet, made not a good figure in his (bad) job as health minister. Still severe lack of PPE, shortage of important medications, we will see.

Laschet as MP of NRW the German State with the most people, is a heavy weight, and made sure he will act on his own, if the Merkel directives are not to his liking, he sent her a 15 page paper with "suggestions" what to do to come out of the lockdown.

Of cause the paper was leaked also to the press, a day before Merkel "Bloodhand" got her paper from her appointed court astrologers (the Leopoldina Society) only few is known about that paper till now, probably that Merkel can tell that Laschets´s paper supports her own...

... Armin Laschet (CDU) received a 15-page paper on dealing with the crisis from his expert council. With this document, the North Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister distances himself from Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) and his Bavarian counterpart Markus Söder CSU). Laschet has good reasons for that.
The Federal President had formulated his Easter message on Holy Saturday in this way: as a thank you to the Germans for contributing to the quasi-state of emergency announced by the federal and state governments. Shortly before, on Maundy Thursday, the Chancellor had spoken of what the "Bild" newspaper calls a "word of power". In the middle of the emerging discussion about easing the strict corona measures, Merkel made it clear who in the end has the say in Germany: "As Chancellor, with all due respect for every opinion and with all respect for every argument (...), I have an overriding one Responsibility." Her role is to "really say what is".

In doing so, Merkel not only claimed the Chancellor's policy competence for herself, but also: the truth. This is the framework in which one has to read a current paper for and by Armin Laschet. It was written by his Corona expert council. This includes prominent and leading experts, among others the former Federal Constitutional Court judge Udo di Fabio, the former head of economic practices Christoph Schmidt or the Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck. Laschet and his deputy Joachim Stamp from the FDP took part in the deliberations of the committee. At the end of the 15-page paper, which is known to FOCUS Online, it says that it was created "with the cooperation" of Laschet and Stamp.

It heralds a turning point in the name of Laschets, in several ways. Because Laschet is in a different pitch than the Federal President and Chancellor. And he also breaks away from Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder, who had expressly warned against the pandemic measures being eased too early. You can find it brave or bold, but Laschet has good reasons for what he says or lets say. [At first of cause  his Iznogoud approach: "I want to be chancellor instead of the now chancellor Merkel!"]

First: Merkel's "overarching responsibility" opposes Laschet's own responsibility as the elected head of government in his state. In federalism, a chancellor never has sole power. In Berlin the chancellor (and her vice chancellor from the SPD), in the German states the prime ministers of the CDU, CSU, SPD and Left Party, at the regional level the district councilors and at the local level the mayor. Germany is not a central state.

Expert advice for Corona to the state government of North Rhine-Westphalia. The committee includes the former Federal Constitutional Court judge Udo di Fabio, the former head of economics Christoph Schmidt, the chairman of the Institute of German Economics, Michael Hüter, the demoscopist Renate Köcher, the Baden-Wuerttemberg SMEs, Nicola Leibinger-Kammüller and the Munich sociologist Armin Nassehi, Bonn's virologist Hendrik Streeck and the chair of the German Ethics Council, Christiane Woopen.
 
Second: Laschet countered the Federal President's encouragement speech with a hard risk analysis. In his analysis of the current situation, Laschet's "Expert Council Corona" talks about the damage caused by the current lockdown:

"The social damage is extremely high. The risk of loneliness and neglect of the elderly due to the massive contact restrictions is real. In addition, there is no food supply in kindergartens and schools for children from poor families, homelessness, an increase in domestic violence and child welfare problems… "

The council problematized "suspension of numerous important medical treatments, preventive examinations and rehabilitation measures", which "would have undesirable health consequences".

The economic costs of the lockdown are "enormously high and continue to increase every day, probably disproportionately", several companies become candidates for "unwanted takeovers" by foreign capital. The self-employed are threatened "existentially".

While Frank Walter Steinmeier had pointed out that the majority of Germans agreed with the anti-corona measures, Laschet's experts paint a completely different picture, which is obviously based on his own knowledge. Laschet's team includes the long-time head of the renowned Allensbach Institute [for consumer and polling choice prediction], Prof. Renate Köcher.

After that, 47 percent of Germans were worried that they might become infected with the corona virus.

71 percent worried that relatives could be infected.

But: "82 percent are concerned about the impact on the German economy."

Almost half of the German population fear "that we are stepping into a worldwide catastrophe".

For a third it is put a physiological strain on the situation "mentally very much - women more than men, the weaker social classes significantly more than the higher social classes".

A third of the population is affected by closer people,  or lives in a household that is affected.

In the group of self-employed, "almost two-thirds are affected by closings and an enormous loss of earnings."

And: If the Federal President praised patience and social cohesion in Germany, Laschet's people come to a significantly more negative result.
 "There is reason to fear that the first phase of social solidarity will now be followed by a phase of polarization in which doubts, worries and needs of the people will increase and the willingness to support the measures will decrease.

This increases the risk of a split in society connected with considerable conflicts (young-old, poor-rich, highly educated-lower education). " There is a danger "for a new group of people to slip into the precariat". The Laschets Corona experts also appreciate the unifying force of the threat, but they emphasize much more the danger that "solidarity will wane".

Third: According to the analysis for Laschet, the corona crisis has no off button. Starting business and society towards normality will be more difficult than shutting it down. Corona will take place in waves, there will be setbacks, possibly increasing numbers of infections. "We will have to learn to live with the virus until we can fully control it."

From this, the Laschet paper draws a different conclusion than others: One should not wait to happen, but should start now - and move "grouping" as a "learning system". That is why the Laschet team does not name a date, but makes the return to "normality" depending on "that the health system is not foreseeably overwhelmed by the infection events".

The suggestions of the Laschet experts for a controlled start-up - they don't call it "exit" but "responsible normality", specifically provide:

- Always test all symptom carriers and their contact persons

- Regularly test people from professions at risk and at high risk (retirement and nursing home)

- Test representative to get a better picture of the overall situation (to date it is not clear how many people are infected)

- Introduce "data protection-compliant, digital solutions" such as the Corona app

- Reopen schools with a time delay and intensify digital lessons -

- Risk groups  "Up to 20 million people" would need special protection, but this should not lead to "new forms of age discrimination"

- Maintain contact rules, prohibit visits, for example for old people's homes and nursing homes

- To re-enable economic activities "as soon as possible". Retail stores could open earlier than discotheques, the soccer Bundesliga with spectators, but also trade fairs and congresses could not take place for the time being

- Cultural events (theater) should be possible again (keep your distance, limit the number of people)

- To stimulate demand, a "temporary and targeted reduction in VAT" could be decided.
After all, the experts emphasize that it cannot be the state's task to "fine-tune" the start-up of business and industry, because that means planned economy.

Laschet's experts devote a separate paragraph to communication and the media, and if you like, you will find a clear affront here against Merkel [in the last sentence, because Merkel likes to say there are no alternatives (to her actions)]. "The process of normalization relies on constructive support from the media. The discussion must be conducted in a public, transparent and honest manner.

There must be no supposed prohibitions on thinking, but solutions are found in the joint discourse based on facts." In this sense, the last sentence reads: "Every decision has consequences and there are always alternatives to every decision."

###

So the usual backstabbing has started again, and there is no more truths as in: " There is the  enemy, arch enemy to the death, and any other member of your own political party!" 

Last edited by Community Member

World Service (maybe other BBC channels if you want to look for it online) had some retrospectives the other week on how other outbreaks happened, done as whole documentaries, with interviews of the important people.

Heard parts of others, but most of the Marburg one. SUPER interesting, from a healthcare perspective alone. It was blown off afterwards in the popular conscience as not-that-deadly. But this is because it happened in the middle of Germany, with their healthcare system, and they jumped on it almost immediately. When it has subsequently popped up in other places (poor healthcare systems, suspicious citizens, governments that DNGAF or sweep it away to not look bad), it is a massive and horrible killer, almost everyone infected dies from it. 

Also: The Germans took it very seriously, despite few deaths considered it a failure and went hard to surveillance, preparation, contingencies. Their low rate is (likely) decades of this diligent work paying off. 

So the Leopoldina paper is also up, it is not that different from the NRW paper

h ttps: //www.leopoldina.org/uploads/tx_leopublication/2020_04_13_Coronavirus-Pandemie-Die_Krise_nachhaltig_überwinden_final.pdf

Third ad hoc statement: Coronavirus pandemic - Overcoming the crisis sustainably
April 13, 2020
content
Summary and recommendations ............................................... ................................................. 2
1 Introduction ............................................... .................................................. ................................... 4
2.Optimize the basis for decision-making with data and models .................................... 5
3.Improve risk communication and promote responsible individual behavior .......... 7
4. To cushion the psychological and social consequences of the crisis.............................. 9
5. Make weighing and decision-making processes transparent ....................................... 10
6. Gradually open educational areas ............................................. ............................................... 13
7. Overcoming the crisis with sustainable economic measures ......................................... 14
Members of the working group ............................................... ....................................................... 18

Summary and recommendations
The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has now had a massive impact on all areas of our society. In view of the resulting enormous uncertainty, science has a great responsibility. On the basis of all available knowledge and the constantly updated data situation, it must analyze a highly dynamic situation and give recommendations for action. This statement by the National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina deals with the psychological, social, legal, educational and economic aspects of the pandemic and comes to the following key recommendations:

Optimizing the basis for decision-making: The data collection, which has been strongly symptom-based up to now, leads to a distorted perception of the infection process. It is therefore important to substantially improve the survey of the infection and immunity status of the population, in particular through representative and regional surveys of the infection and immunity status. The data obtained in this way should flow into the ongoing adjustments to dynamic models in real time and thus enable more reliable short-term forecasts. These can be used to support decisions and make the effectiveness of political measures verifiable. It should be possible to use voluntarily provided GPS data in combination with contact tracing, as is the case for example in South Korea. This would increase the precision of models available today, in particular to allow context-dependent, local resolution and thus a differentiated prediction of the pandemic course.

Enabling a differentiated assessment of the risks: A contextual classification of the available data is important for the social and individual handling of the corona pandemic. Data on serious illnesses and deaths must be compared to those of other illnesses and related to the expected risk of death in individual age groups. A realistic representation of the individual risk must be clearly illustrated. This also applies to systemic risks such as overloading the health system and negative consequences in business and society. This is the only way to ensure the cooperation of the population in implementing the necessary measures.

To cushion psychological and social effects: For the acceptance and implementation of measures taken, an intrinsic motivation based on self-protection and solidarity is more important than the threat of sanctions. The conveyance of a realistic schedule and a clear package of measures for gradual normalization increase the controllability and predictability for everyone. This helps to minimize the negative psychological and physical effects of the current stress. Aid and support for risk groups who are particularly affected by the effects of current restrictions, such as children in difficult family situations or people who are exposed to domestic violence, must be provided.

Including a variety of perspectives in the weighing process: The state-prescribed measures, which aim to protect life and health with a view to the pandemic, entail restrictions on other legal interests. These must not be ignored in the proportionality check, but must be considered in an overall assessment. Only the inclusion of the unintended side effects makes the entire complexity of weighing up conflicting goods clear. Current political decisions to deal with the crisis must recognize the multidimensionality of the problem, take into account the perspectives of those affected and those at different risk, and disclose the respective weighing processes and communicate accordingly. For example, preventive segregation of individual population groups, for example older people, should be rejected solely for their own protection as paternalistic patronage.

Gradually opening up the education sector: In the education sector, the crisis has led to a massive decline in childcare, teaching and learning services as well as to worsening social inequality. The reopening of educational institutions should therefore take place as soon as possible. On the one hand, educational restrictions have to be lifted, on the other hand, the risks of new infections have to be minimized. Because the younger ones in the education system are more dependent on personal care, guidance and supportprimary schools and lower secondary education should be gradually reopened. Distance learning, whether digital or analog, can be used better with increasing age. It is therefore recommended that students return to their usual lessons at higher levels in the education system later. Different transitional forms and links between presence phases and distance teaching using digital media are conceivable. If possible, tests should be carried out. Particularly for children with learning backlogs, special efforts are required to reduce disadvantages. Since smaller children cannot adhere to the distance rules and protective measures, but at the same time can pass on the infection, the operation in daycare centers should only be restarted to a very limited extent.

Gradually normalize public life: Public life can be gradually normalized again under the following conditions: a) the new infections stabilize at a low level, b) necessary clinical reserve capacities are built up and the care of other patients is resumed on a regular basis, c) die Known protective measures (hygiene measures, mouth and nose protection, distance rules, increasing identification of infected people) are observed in a disciplined manner. For example, retail and the hospitality industry can be reopened, and general business and official public traffic can be resumed. In addition, business and private trips can be made taking into account the protective measures mentioned. The wearing of mouth-nose protection should become an additional measure in certain areas such as public transport. Depending on the possible spatial distance and the contact intensities of the participants, social, cultural and sporting events should be gradually made possible again. Continuous monitoring of the number of infections is necessary.

Using economic and financial policy for stabilization: During the current health policy measures, economic and financial policy must provide short-term help to bridge the difficult situation. This includes short-time work, liquidity support, tax deferrals and grants to reduce bankruptcies. State holdings should only be used to stabilize companies in extreme emergencies. With the expiry of the current health policy measures, further expansive fiscal policy impulses will be necessary in the medium term. On the revenue side, this could be tax relief, bringing forward the partial relief of the solidarity surcharge or completely abolishing it. On the expenditure side, additional funds for public investments, for example in health care, digital infrastructure and climate protection, are important. The crisis highly requires European solidarity. Joint crisis management includes, for example, the guarantee of liquidity by the European Central Bank (ECB), financial support from the EU budget and the European Investment Bank (EIB) as well as a credit line with conditionality focused on the pandemic effects through the European stability mechanism (ESM).

Setting the course for sustainability: Existing global challenges, such as climate and species protection in particular, do not disappear with the corona virus crisis. Political measures at national and international levels should be based on the principles of ecological and social sustainability, future sustainability and gaining resilience. Measures that are based on broad scientific evidence and political and social consensus before the coronavirus crisis must not be weakened, but must continue to be implemented with high priority or even strengthened. Economic stimulus programs should generally be compatible with the goals of the European green deal.

Hold on to a market-based economic order: The economic policy measures taken in the crisis must be reduced or adjusted as soon as possible in favor of sustainable business as part of a free market order. This includes withdrawing from companies if investments were made as a result of the crisis and reducing public debt. The debt brake is to be adhered to within the framework of its current regulations. This allows much higher indebtedness, especially in such special times as this, but requires returning it back to normality.
####

This was the into & summary after this is the deeper discussion, if you are interested google translate is your friend. 

What Merkel "Bloodhand" and her Camarilla will make out of this we have to wait till Wednesday.... 

And to illustrate how bad the German economy is already hit:

The number of companies with short-time work is soaring from one high to the next: According to new information from the Federal Employment Agency, around 180,000 companies applied for short-time work allowance for their employees in the first week of April alone.

From the beginning of the Corona crisis until April 6, a total of 650,000 such registrations were received by the employment agencies, the agency said. That is more than ten times as many as at the height of the financial and economic crisis of twelve years ago and at the same time almost twice as many as in the entire period from 2008 to February 2020.

At the same time, the government is preparing a conditional extension of the maximum duration of short-time work: Companies that had introduced it before the pandemic for economic reasons should be able to continue their short-time work beyond the normal period of twelve months if necessary - so that they can use this tool to secure jobs.

Minister of Labor Hubertus Heil (SPD) wanted to quickly issue a legal ordinance in agreement with the Chancellery, his ministry said after consultations on Thursday.

In the metal and electronics industry alone, there should be as many short-time workers as the government expected for the entire economy. In addition, the absenteeism is much greater this time. But there is hope - because of China.

The consequences of the corona crisis are already hitting core areas of German industry harder than the financial crisis. This is shown by the results of a company survey that the employers' association Gesamtmetall presented on Monday. According to this, the capacity utilization of companies in the metal and electrical industry - including the automotive industry and mechanical engineering - is currently lower than in the recession eleven years ago. In addition, 1.2 million metal workers are already on short-time work, as is the total metal extrapolated from the data. That would be 250,000 more than then. And by May another million will probably be added, the employers' association expects.

This would mean that there would be as many short-time workers in the metal and electrical industry alone, which has 4 million employees, as the government had previously expected for the entire economy: in mid-March it had up to 2.35 million euros in additional expenses of 10 billion euros Short-time workers counted. Initial data from the Federal Employment Agency had also shown that there should be more: More than 650,000 companies have already registered short-time work with them - more than ten times as many as in the financial crisis.

Short-time work in 80 percent of companies

The authority does not yet provide an estimate of how many employees this affects - given the many new applications from the catering and retail sectors, the basis is too uncertain. The total metal survey now provides a somewhat more precise picture for the industry: 43 percent of the companies stated that they were already using short-time work - another 40 percent plan to do so. The evaluation is based on answers from 1400 companies with a total of 860,000 employees, the first April week were interviewed.

At the same time, the loss of work for individual short-time workers is greater than in previous crises: instead of the usual 30 to 50 percent, two thirds of normal working hours are lost on average. Short-time working allowance replaces 60 percent of the loss of wages where the company and employees agree to a cut due to the crisis.

Before the crisis, the Federal Agency had financial reserves of 26 billion euros - much more than the previously expected additional expenditure of 10 billion euros for short-time work. But with the numbers now foreseeable, the upholstery threatens to melt away quickly.

Fear of the "crisis after the crisis"

Gesamtmetall is therefore all the more opposed to political plans to increase short-time work benefits. "In these circumstances, that is out of the question," warned CEO Oliver Zander. Otherwise there would be a “crisis after the crisis” - in which the economy would then have to pay sharply increasing taxes instead of investing in new business.

As expected, the slump will hit the auto industry very hard: In the first quarter, the volume of orders dropped by 26 percent, as metal shows. For the entire metal and electrical industry, it was only minus 14 percent - also because one sector lifts the average: medical technology.

Nevertheless, the capacity utilization of the 7,000 metal and electrical companies fell to a historic low of 65 percent in April - two percentage points below the low point of the financial crisis. Gesamtmetall warns that May could be even worse. The VDMA mechanical engineering association, however, spread a hint of optimism: According to a survey, only 46 percent of German machine builders in China experienced major stresses due to corona. In March it was 57 percent.

###

So it is vital to kindle up the economy again ASAP, or prepare for an evil and long recession (or both). 

Good resolable shoes and  boots, wool socks, sturdy practical clothing and reserve bed linen and towels come to mind, all that that can be washed by hand if the need arises. 

And when I drove to my parents today, I saw at a car dealership 4 new generic vanilla vans with big foil stickers  reading 40 % off list price. Beginning of Stagflation already?

Last edited by Community Member

Over the last couple of weeks, I've seen articles on this concern in China, S Korea, and Japan.  Now the WHO.

WHO officials say it’s unclear whether recovered coronavirus patients are immune to second infection

World Health Organization officials said Monday not all people who recover from the coronavirus have the antibodies to fight a second infection, raising concern that patients may not develop immunity after surviving Covid-19.

“With regards to recovery and then reinfection, I believe we do not have the answers to that. That is an unknown,” Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s emergencies program, said at a press conference at the organization’s Geneva headquarters on Monday. 

 

A preliminary study of patients in Shanghai found that some patients had “no detectable antibody response” while others had a very high response, said Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s lead scientist on Covid-19. Whether the patients who had a strong antibody response were immune to a second infection is “a separate question,” she added.

More than 300,000 of the 1.87 million coronavirus cases across the world have recovered, WHO officials noted, adding that they need more data from recovered patients to understand their antibody response, whether that gives them immunity and for how long. 

“That’s something that we really need to better understand is what does that antibody response look like in terms of immunity,” Van Kerkhove said.

Ryan said there are questions about whether the virus can reactivate after a patient recovers and tests negative for Covid-19.

“There are many reasons why we might see reactivation of infection either with the same infection or another infectious agent,” he said. In general, “there are many situations in viral infection where someone doesn’t clear the virus entirely from their system.” Some patients can also clear the main infection but develop a secondary bacterial infection, he said. 

 

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said that it is developing a test to detect the presence of coronavirus antibodies to determine if a person could be immune to the disease. While such a test can determine who has been exposed to the virus, it’s not clear if it can identify those immune to reinfection, according to the WHO.

WHO officials also warned Monday against lifting social distancing restrictionsand reopening businesses, even as U.S. political leaders, from President Donald Trump to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, have said they hope to reopen businesses as soon as it is safe to do so. 

“While Covid-19 accelerates very fast, it decelerates much more slowly. In other words, the way down is much slower than the way up,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference at the organization’s Geneva headquarters on Monday. “That means control measures must be lifted slowly and with control. It cannot happen all at once.”

cnbc.com/2020/04/13/who-officials-say-its-unclear-whether-recovered-coronavirus-patients-are-immune-to-second-infection.html

French President Macron just gave speech, lockdown (at least) till May 11th

The curfew in France due to the coronavirus pandemic will take at least another month. President Emmanuel Macron announced in a television speech that the measure was extended until May 11.

Macron says that the end of the exit restrictions will only be possible if people continue to behave responsibly.

May 11 will mark the entry into the next phase, said Macron. From then on, schools and kindergartens should gradually reopen. Restaurants, cafes or hotels are to remain closed for the time being. Seniors or the chronically ill should then also remain at home.

From May 11, there should be enough capacity to test all people with Covid 19 symptoms. Whoever has the virus should then be quarantined. Macron also advocated an anonymous anti-corona app on a voluntary basis.

The country has made progress in the fight against the virus and there is hope, said Macron. But in the Grand Est region or in the Paris area, hospitals are overworked. "Our country was not adequately prepared for this crisis," said Macron: "We will all draw the necessary conclusions from this."

The President thanked everyone who followed the rules. He knew that this would be even more difficult if you lived in a narrow apartment.

The curfew has been in effect since March 17 and has already been extended. The French can only leave the house if absolutely necessary. Walking dogs, going for a walk or sports are only allowed for one hour a day within a radius of one kilometer from the apartment.

France has been hit hard by the pandemic, with 14,967 deaths by Monday. For the fifth day in a row, the number of people treated in the intensive care unit decreased slightly.

ptz / rtr / dpa

I think I'm due for a panic attack soon.

Top Pork Producer Shuts Key Plant and Warns of Meat Shortfall

 

(Bloomberg) --

The world’s biggest pork producer is shuttering a major U.S. plant indefinitely after a coronavirus outbreak among employees, with the company warning that closures across the country are taking American meat supplies “perilously close to the edge” of shortfalls.

Smithfield Foods Inc. will idle its Sioux Falls, South Dakota, pork-processing facility, which accounts for 4% to 5% of U.S. production, the company said in a statement Sunday. The move comes after state officials reported more than 200 cases of Covid-19 for plant employees, adding to a spike in infections that’s seen hundreds of American meat workers get sick. Plants have been forced to shutter or reduce output.

“The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply,” Smithfield’s Chief Executive Officer Ken Sullivan said in the statement. “It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running.”

 

And...

 

Crop and Livestock Prices Plunge Under Weight of COVID-19 Uncertainty

 

Updated analysis by the American Farm Bureau Federation shows crop and livestock prices falling to levels that threaten the livelihoods of many U.S. farmers and ranchers. Shuttered schools, universities, restaurants, bars and cafeterias are no longer buying milk, meat, fruits, vegetables and other food, causing a downward spiral in crop and livestock prices.

Nearby futures prices for nearly all the major crops have dropped by double-digit percentages. Pushed down by a 40% plunge in ethanol prices, corn prices have fallen 15%.  Soybean prices are down 10%, while the price for cotton, which is heavily dependent on foreign manufacturing capacity, sank nearly 30%. Buoyed by demand in the U.S. and China, wheat prices have declined only 3%.

On the livestock front, since the beginning of the year, both beef and pork futures prices have declined more than 30%. Milk futures prices have also fallen sharply, with the price for milk used to make cheese down 28% and the price for milk used to make nonfat dry milk falling by 34%.

“The resilience of farmers and ranchers has been nothing short of stunning, but we must not take for granted their ability to hold on with prices spiraling, taking all hope of breaking even with them,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “I stand by my assurance that our food supply remains strong, but America will have fewer farms and ranches supplying it unless USDA acts quickly to deliver aid and our economy is released from the grips of this pandemic soon.”

Dr. John Newton, American Farm Bureau Federation chief economist, said, “The drop in demand is pushing the prices farmers would get paid for their crops to lows that may make it very difficult for them to justify putting another crop in the ground this spring. While the whole country is optimistic there is an end in sight, the question of when the economy will be healthy again is fueling further market uncertainty.”

“It’s worth noting that these prices are in no way tied to what shoppers pay in the grocery store. There are a lot of hands through which these commodities pass from the farm to the fork, so a drop in prices paid to farmers very rarely, if ever, translates into lower consumer prices immediately,” Newton explained.

For more detailed information about futures prices, see this Market Intel article.  

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